Nuclear escalation could happen either accidentally (one side misinterprets a missile launch or targeting decision), or on purpose (China feels the need to staunch the bleeding if its Great Wall at Sea crumbles). Navy on one side, and the PLA’s anti-access, area denial systems on the other. War would result in a clash between the U.S. Russia would likely stay out, except insofar as it used its defense-industry to keep the Chinese military operating. Similarly, as the United States steps up its involvement with Vietnam and the Philippines, it could become entangled in Chinese military operations against either country.Ī U.S.-China war would be bad enough, but depending on the context and course of the conflict, both Japan and India might feel the need to intervene in some fashion. If an operator lost his or her cool, dreadful consequences could ensue. The United States has already had a number of uncomfortable confrontations with Chinese naval and air units in the South China Sea. response, and throw the entire Asia-Pacific into chaos. intervention by an attack on American military installations across the region. Given the likelihood that such intervention would prove decisive, China might feel compelled to pre-empt U.S. In context of any kind of sustained combat between Japanese and Chinese forces (not to mention an aggressive Chinese effort to land on the islands), the United States would almost certainly become involved. If a conflict between China and Japan erupts, the United States may find it difficult to avoid entanglement. The United States is bound by treaty to defend Japan. Moreover, both countries have struggled to control the activities of nationalist groups, leading to additional potential flashpoints. A naval or air incident could create an upsurge of nationalist hostility in both countries, making it difficult for either Tokyo or Beijing to back down. Both countries claim the islands, and each has deployed military forces in their vicinity. Over the past two years China and Japan have played a dangerous game around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. It is unclear, at this point, how the United States would respond if China felt that it needed to intercede on Pakistan’s behalf in a war with India. The 1971 Indo-Pakistani War nearly drew in both the United States and China in that conflict, both would have intervened on the Pakistani side. Conversely, China has intensified the relationship with one of its only client states. The United States has grown closer to India over the past few years, even as it continues to send weapons and cash to Pakistan. But if Pakistan suffered a serious conventional defeat, the use of tactical nuclear weapons might seem like the only way out. Either state could engage in some adventurism in Afghanistan, perhaps in response to the activity of non-state actors.ĭebate over the conventional balance along the border between India and Pakistan has raged for years. If a Pakistani-sponsored terrorist group makes another attack similar to that in Mumbai, India’s patience could wear very thin. India and Pakistan could go to war again for any number of reasons. Serious fighting between external powers in Syria could quickly draw in Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, and potentially spread to other parts of the globe. If any of the three decide to intervene in favor of their preferred factions, the situation could very quickly come to resemble a game of chicken, with airstrikes, no fly zones, and secure enclaves providing the points of conflict. This could get ugly, as France, Russia, and the United States have very different views about how the future of Syria should look. ( Recommended: Is a U.S.-China War Possible?)Įven if the emerging anti-ISIS coalition prevails, conflict between major power could ensue. On the other, a dramatic shift on the ground in Syria could force the hand of one of the supporters of the proxy combatants. On the one hand, an accidental confrontation between NATO and Russia aircraft could lead to bad tactical decisions, with one or more planes shot out of the air. But the explosion of attention (not to mention air traffic) could complicate the next step in the war. At the moment, ISIS has drawn the attention of most of the world’s most powerful countries, including France, the United States, and Russia.
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